Summary
On January 16, 2026 the Tampa Bay Partnership released “The Housing Equation” report, the region’s first comprehensive analysis of housing supply, demand and affordability across Hillsborough, Pinellas and Pasco Counties. Made possible with support from JPMorganChase and backed by independent research, this report delivers data-driven, actionable insights that empower investors, businesses, policymakers, developers, nonprofits, and the public to better understand the tri-county housing gap, enabling them to shape meaningful solutions.
Tampa, FL – January 16, 2026 – Today, the Tampa Bay Partnership released “The Housing Equation” report, the region’s first comprehensive analysis of housing supply, demand and affordability across Hillsborough, Pinellas and Pasco Counties. Made possible with support from JPMorganChase and backed by independent research, this report delivers data-driven, actionable insights that empower investors, businesses, policymakers, developers, nonprofits, and the public to better understand the tri-county housing gap, enabling them to shape meaningful solutions.
Tampa Bay is projected to add 564,000 residents and 211,000 households by 2035, a surge that will reshape housing needs. Yet, recent production hasn’t kept pace. The research shows that between 2018 and 2023, the region added nearly 100,000 households but built only 82,000 units, fueling rising costs and widening affordability gaps.
“Housing affordability affects every resident and employer in our region, making it one of the most urgent challenges we face together,” said Bemetra Simmons, President & CEO of the Tampa Bay Partnership.
Key findings from “The Housing Equation” include:
- Existing gap: The region does not have enough homes priced affordably for households earning 80% of the Area Median Income (about $69,500 for a family of four) with an estimated shortage of 80,650 units.
- Future demand: By 2035, the region needs to add approximately 254,700 new housing units, an average of 21,225 units per year, to keep pace with projected growth. That includes 10,685 single-family units and 10,540 multifamily units annually.
- Cost burden: A third of all households—over 408,000 families—spend more than 30% of income on housing; 52% of renters are cost burdened, and 24% of homeowners.
- Rising rents: Median rent surged 48% in five years, while wages rose only 29%.
- Vanishing affordability: Homes under $200K made up 30% of sales in 2019 and dropped to just 5% in 2022.
- Funding leverage: If addressed, $273M in gap funding can unlock $663M in additional funding and create $1B in economic impact for Tampa Bay.
“The Housing Equation” breaks down what’s needed by county, income level, and housing type, then points to proven strategies like zoning updates, creative financing, and advocacy that can drive long-term economic growth,” Simmons added. “Now that we have a clear understanding of how many units we need, we can create a comprehensive Regional Action Plan to meet that goal.”
“For the first time, leaders across Tampa Bay have access to precise data that can be used to create a strategic roadmap for solutions,” said Nikky Flores, Florida Region Manager for Middle Market Banking at JPMorganChase and Tampa Bay Partnership Board Chair. “We’re proud to invest in the data and tools that support this work because housing stability is the foundation for economic growth and opportunity. The evidence and the need is clear – now the community can come together to act on it.”
Read the full report at TampaBayPartnership.org/HousingEquation
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About the Tampa Bay Partnership
The Tampa Bay Partnership is a coalition of regional business and non-profit leaders that is joined by a shared commitment to improving Tampa Bay residents’ personal and economic well-being. Formally incorporated in 1994 and re-established in 2016 as a regional research and public policy organization, the Partnership works with the region’s top employers, along with a diverse group of government and non-profit partners, to identify and address the most pressing challenges facing our community, including transportation, education, workforce, housing affordability and other emerging issues.
For more information, please contact:
Jessica Vega-Eugene
JessicaV@ConsultVistra.com
813.263.0792
JessicaV@ConsultVistra.com